Analysis: Republicans Could Draw 19 More House Seats After Looming SCOTUS Ruling

In addition to the redistricting that’s already happening, Republicans could add up to an additional 19 seats depending on if the Supreme Court decides to gut a key part of the Voting Rights Act. 

The SCOTUS will be rehearing Louisiana v. Callais on October 15, which could result in Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which supposedly protects against “racially discriminatory” voting maps, being overturned.  

A report from the left-wing groups Fair Fight Action (founded by Stacey Abrams) and Black Voters Matter Fund are hysterical about the possibility. According to their analysis, the results would be devastating to the Democrat Party, including:

• 19 seats being redistricted into safe GOP seats, and 6 blue seats could become battlegrounds.
• Up to 30% of the Congressional Black Caucus and 11% of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus being drawn out of their seats.
• Cementing “one-party [Republican] control” of the House of Representatives “for at least a generation.” 
• Democrats “only realistic path to victory” would be a “rare ‘blue wave’ election scenario where voters turn out in overwhelming rates.” 

Even without the SCOTUS ruling, Democrats are already facing an uphill battle in the midterms due to redistricting. According to a New York Times analysis on how Democrats will need to perform if redistricting efforts nationwide are successful and if California’s specifically are unsuccessful; Democrats will need to win the popular vote by at least 2.3 points to barely take  back the House, and if Newsom fails, they’ll need to win by 3.4 points.

Texas is to thank for this - before their redistricting, Democrats would’ve only needed to win the popular vote by 0.2% to take back the House.

All the redistricting scenarios, and how much the Democrats will need to win the popular vote by to retake the House, are as follows:

• No states redistricted - 0.2%
• Texas the only state that redistricts - 1.6% 
• California and Texas redistrict - 0.3% 
• California, Texas, Ohio, Missouri, and Indiana redistrict - 1.6%
• California, Texas, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, and Florida redistrict - 2.3%
• Texas, Ohio, Missouri, and Indiana redistrict - 2.8%
• Texas, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, and Florida redistrict - 3.4%