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Vince Coglianese

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Hayley Caronia

Nation’s Most Accurate Pollsters Start Group to Challenge BS Polls

  • by:
  • Source: Silverloch
  • 07/10/2025
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The accuracy of American political polling has rightly been called into question following recent elections.

While polling has historically usually been right, that has changed noticeably in the past decade, beginning with them all getting the 2016 victory of Donald Trump dead wrong. The most accurate pollster in the 2016 election cycle was Rasmussen Reports, the only poll that indicated Trump had a chance at pulling off an electoral college victory, and almost predicted the popular vote totals to a t. 

And the polls were off by more in 2020 than in 2016 by almost threefold. In 2016 the RealClearPolitics average had Hillary Clinton ahead by 3.2 points while she won the popular vote by 2.1. In 2020 the polls had Biden leading Trump by 7.2 points, while the official result was a 4.5 point margin of victory - and that’s without accounting for any nefarious activities, of course. 

State polls were off by roughly five percentage points in 2016. In 2020, Not a single poll predicted that Susan Collins, who won her race, would win her race. Quinnipiac predicted that Collins would lose by 12 points, when she actually won by 8.8, for an incredible 20.8 point margin of error. Mitch McConnell polled 9 points ahead of his opponent who he defeated by over a 20 points margin, and Joni Ernst only polled 1.4. points above her opponent, but won by 6.6.

In 2024, nearly all polls on election day had Harris winning, with the exception of Rasmussen. Again, the establishment pollsters were wrong. And who could forget the formally highly respected Selzer Poll predicting that Harris would win Iowa?

To fight back, Rasmussen Reports, Big Data Poll, InsiderAdvantage, and Trafalgar Group are banding together and forming a group called the National Association of Independent Pollsters  to provide the best alternative to the biased polls so they can be trusted once again. All were “top 10” polls in 2024 in terms of their accuracy.  

The group's mission is to provide the “very best” data available, and to challenge the bias evident in other polls - some of which are run by the liberal media and liberal colleges. 

To quote from their press release; The new organization says, “it will provide the very best of the polling industry the opportunity to share ideas and explore the rapidly evolving changes in the industry.” The association will not set standards or expectations for its members. “We don’t need to set any standards given that anyone who is a member or future member of this organization has already established that they are among the most accurate pollsters in America” said Richard Baris of Big Data Poll. He will serve as the group’s first chairman.
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Evita Duffy-Alfonso

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Hayley Caronia