NY Times Has Bad News for Democrats Ahead of 2026 Midterms

Even with the Republican House majority as razor-thin as it is, Democrats are still facing an uphill battle amid redistricting efforts ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Even the New York Times is reporting as such. According to the Times:

Indiana, Missouri, Ohio and perhaps Florida — all Republican-controlled states — seem likely to join Texas and California in attempting to redraw their congressional maps, according to my New York Times colleagues. By their tally, Republicans could carve out up to seven more House seats where they would be favored to win.

They performed an analysis on how Democrats will need to perform if redistricting efforts nationwide are successful - and if California’s specifically are unsuccessful. 

In summary, Democrats will need to win the popular vote by at least 2.3 points to barely take  back the House, and if Newsom fails, they’ll need to win by 3.4 points.

Texas is to thank for this - before their redistricting, Democrats would’ve only needed to win the popular vote by 0.2% to take back the House. 

All the redistricting scenarios, and how much the Democrats will need to win the popular vote by to retake the House, are as follows:

No states redistricted - 0.2%

Texas the only state that redistricts - 1.6% 

California and Texas redistrict - 0.3% 

California, Texas, Ohio, Missouri, and Indiana redistrict - 1.6%

California, Texas, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, and Florida redistrict - 2.3%

Texas, Ohio, Missouri, and Indiana redistrict - 2.8%

Texas, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, and Florida redistrict - 3.4%