NYT: Red States Set to Be Big Winners From 2030 Census

Even without a new census that excludes illegal aliens from being included in the population totals (which boosts the representation of blue states in the electoral college and house of representatives), the population exodus from blue states to red states is set to give red states a boost in both.

According to the New York Times, projections currently show that Florida and Texas will gain a total of five congressional seats, while Utah and Idaho will each add one - at the expense of California and New York. 

None of this accounts for the gains that Texas will make from the recent redistricting that was approved, which should add five republican seats among their current alignment of seats. 

When it comes to the electoral college, things are more even more dire for Democrats:

Across all of the possible scenarios in the nine states that would be considered battlegrounds in the 2032 election, Democrats would see about a third of their current winning Electoral College combinations disappear if population projections hold. However, when looking only at the most feasible winning combinations based on voting behaviors in the 2024 election, the outlook is far worse. Of Democrats’ 25 most plausible paths to victory in 2024, only five would remain.

Depending on what estimate you look at, illegal aliens are somewhere between 3%-10% of the population. If Trump is successful in getting them removed from the census, and red states are successful in their recent redistricting efforts, that only amplifies this looming disaster for Democrats.